good but the Sears deal the other day on the Panny at $150 was great

Not a bad price but I ordered from Sony for $150 + free shipping..

i tried to get one at sony.com but it out of stock

Still leary of these things, at least with a PS3 I can install linux or possibly play games if blue-ray flops in favor of flash or streaming content.

If you are not in a major hurry, I would go for the Sony deal for $30 less, (how they are out of stock since they are SONY is a bit of BS).
But if you are going to wait, then prices sesem to be headed for a major fall after Christmas.
#4, I don't see how blu-ray can flop, since they are the current standard and they keep improving it. These things hold many hours of HD quality video and audio and not everyone has 10mb/s internet connections, so this seems like the best bet. The format has lots of room for growth, so I don't see it dying off in the next few years.
Movies on Friday are running about $10-15/disc, so that should be the price for older releases next year.
Now, #4 has a good point, that with a stand alone you have a player. With a PS3, you get a mini-super computer that plays games, movies, and lots of ther stuff they haven't figured out yet.

#3 - you can still order from Sony even though it is out of stock, unlike most other retailers.

Upgradeable to 2.0! This Sony rocks! (And this coming from an Xbox 360 fanboy!)