Want the Samsung Galaxy S5? Wait two months; you could save up to 40%

By on April 11, 2014

With the official U.S. launch of the Samsung S5 upon us, fans of the S4 and previous generations of smartphones are considering an upgrade this week. While some reviewers have pegged the S5 as an incremental upgrade from the S4, there are plenty of fans who are excited to check out the upgraded camera, fingerprint scanner, waterproofing and the redesigned version of Android.

However, just because Samsung released a new smartphone doesn’t mean you should run out and buy it right away. History suggests that deals on a single Samsung S5 during the first couple weeks of sales will only amount to $10 to $20 in savings for the consumer.

samsung-galaxy-s5

That being said, Verizon is getting aggressive at launch by duplicating the Buy One, Get One promotion that promoted the Samsung S4 last month. While you will have to pay $300 upfront and wait for $100 in rebates, you will end up spending $200 for 2 smartphones, one being the Samsung S5 and the other a choice of the S5, HTC One or Samsung ATIV SE. In addition, Costco is running a limited time $100 promotion on the S5 here on new activations with Verizon.

To help you figure out, based on your budget, when the best time to purchase the Samsung S5 will be, we dove deep into Ben’s deal history data to analyze all the previous generation deals that we posted over the last few years. On average, Ben’s posts about 60 to 80 deals per year for each entry level, 16GB model in the Samsung S line of smartphones. We know exactly when smartphones go on sale and can predict some obvious price drop trends that the Samsung S5 will follow over the next 12 months.

What do the Samsung S4 and S III tell us about the Samsung S5?

At launch, the typical price of an under contract S model is $200, Of course, the cost of a two-year contract will likely be more than $2000 over the lifetime of the phone. Alternatively, an unlocked model costs between $600 to $750 at launch. The advantage to an unlocked smartphone is the ability to use it on any carrier, including less expensive networks like Straight Talk or Cricket Wireless.

2 months from the release date,  Samsung Galaxy S5 purchasers will save 30 to 40 percent on the cost of an under contract phone according to our historical deal data. Both the Samsung S4 and S III could be found for around $120 to $140 under contract at that time in the product life cycle. On top of that, Dell offered an additional $100 gift certificate with a $130 S4 purchase just two months after the initial release. If you wait three months before picking up an unlocked Samsung S5, you will likely save approximately 20 to 25 percent. Roughly, that will be a savings of $120 to $180 off the price of an unlocked phone.

Samsung-SIII-S4-Price-History

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6 months out from release and you should see a 50 percent drop, or $99 price point, for the under contract Samsung S5. The Samsung S4, S III and S II all offered a price point of around $99 within the first six months of launch. In addition, you will be able to find 30 percent off deals on the unlocked version, perhaps anywhere up to $225 off the original MSRP.

9 months out, the Samsung S5 will likely be free under contract from major retailers like Best Buy and Amazon during Black Friday 2014. Both the Samsung S4 and S III hit the $0 under contract price within 9 months of release, thus the S5 will mostly likely copy the same price-reduction model. Samsung will also face stiffer competition from Apple this year with the release of larger iPhones, thus we could even see the free price point (under contract) in late October. The unlocked version will be about 40 percent off at the nine month mark, as well.

Samsung-S5-Price-Projection-3

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12 months out, the unlocked price on the previous generation will hit the 50 percent mark easily when the next version is released. That’s why you should consider picking up the Samsung S4 this month instead of the S5. This is also when the unlocked price on previous generation models starts to flatten out dramatically. If the Samsung S III and S II are any indication, the best price that you will be able to get on an unlocked S4 a year from now will be around 60 percent off the original price, only a $50 savings by waiting an additional 12 months from today.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will the release of other popular smartphones trigger price reductions on the Samsung S5?

  • Highly unlikely. While the marketing teams at Samsung, Apple and other companies definitely battle it out over the airwaves with multi-million dollar ad campaigns, the release of new phones from Apple, HTC or Nokia didn’t trigger a price reduction for the S4 or S III. The only thing that would trigger a significant price reduction on the S5 early on would be poor sales of the device in the first 4 to 8 weeks.

Does it matter which service provider I choose in regards to getting the best price on the S5?

  • Beyond the initial offering from Verizon mentioned above, no. Approximately 80 percent of our data points of our best sales are from retailers, not service providers. Of the service provider deal posts, prices were in line with other retailers at the time. However, be on the lookout for solid service provider deals on Black Friday. These stores are often ignored during the Black Friday fracas, thus have to offer more aggressive deals. It’s also easier to pop into the store on the shopping holiday and pick up a new smartphone than shove your way into a Best Buy or Walmart.

Check Latest Verizon Wireless Deals on Bens

Does it matter which retailer  I choose in regards to future sales on the S5?

  • Regarding deals on under contract phones, look for the most aggressive sales at Best Buy and Amazon. Both of these retailers led the charge on Samsung S model price reductions over the last three years. Regarding deals on unlocked phones, look to eBay for the best prices on unlocked phones. While Amazon is slowly catching up to eBay, the volume of unlocked Samsung devices is usually higher on eBay and the deals are more frequent.

So When Should I Buy the Samsung S5?

Our advice would be to choose from one of the price points above for an under contract or unlocked Samsung S5 that works best for you and set up a Deal Alert on Ben’s. The second that we post a deal that meets your price point, we will send you an email alert. In other words, you can set it and forget it. You can also peruse our mobile phone deals here:

Check all Mobile Phone Deals on Bens

About Mike Flacy

Editor-in-Chief for The CheckOut. During my free time, I love to write about pop culture, home theater, digital photography, social media, mobile technology and cool gadgets!

One Comment

  1. Cadaver

    April 12, 2014 at 1:23 pm

    Thanks, Mike. Interesting analysis. Tempering ones enthusiasm is definitely the way to go.

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